Last July, the online trading of China's carbon emission trading market was officially launched, taking the lead in the power industry, which accounts for 40% of the total carbon emissions. UBS reported that carbon trading will be a more important decarbonization market tool in 2022.
The report predicts that China's carbon price may exceed 200 yuan / ton in the next few years, and is currently about 40-50 yuan / ton.
According to the report, based on the current carbon price of 50 yuan / ton and 95% of the free carbon credit line, its model shows that carbon trading may have an impact of - 45% to + 10% on the profits of the enterprises tracked by the bank, compared with its estimate of - 12% to + 8% in 2018.
The four scenarios predicted by the bank list the potential path for China's development of carbon trading market, based on its two main fluctuation factors - carbon price and the number of industries in line with the plan. In the most optimistic scenario, the net profit growth of enterprises benefiting from carbon trading may be as high as 40%.
According to the report, based on preliminary calculations, it is estimated that the total scale of China's carbon trading market may exceed 500 billion yuan. Similar to the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the report expects that most of China's carbon trading volume will be contributed by the carbon futures market formed in the next few years. Easy carbon home
Under the best market conditions, the bank predicts that the total scale of the mainland carbon trading market is more likely to reach 2 trillion yuan, which will bring hundreds of millions of dollars of potential trading fee income to exchanges and market makers.
In addition, the report said that the new carbon financial products are expected to further develop with the expansion of market scale and bring new business to mainland financial institutions. UBS predicts that in the next few years, China's carbon price may exceed 200 yuan / ton, five times the current level. Due to strong demand and tight supply.
As for the long-term upward carbon price forecast of about 650 yuan / ton, the downward price is the same as the current price of 50 yuan / ton.
Contact Person: Mr. Fan