The energy transition Commission (etc) released a report in Beijing on November 26, saying that from a technical and financial point of view, it is possible to achieve zero carbon emission in heavy industry and heavy transportation industry in 2060, and developed economies are expected to achieve this goal earlier.
Zhao Changwen, director of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, pointed out that "the mission that can be accomplished: to achieve net zero carbon emissions of industries that are difficult to reduce by the middle of this century" (hereinafter referred to as the report). It analyzes the possible ways of comprehensive decarbonization of cement, steel, plastics, truck transportation, shipping and aviation. If we can accelerate innovation and increase investment, Heavy industry and heavy transportation industry need to make great efforts to achieve net zero carbon emission.
At present, the emissions of heavy industry and heavy transportation industry account for 30% of energy emissions. The report believes that with the further reduction of emissions from other industries, this proportion may increase to 60% by the middle of this century.
The report said that although some technologies still need to be further improved before they can be put into commercial use, it is technically feasible to use existing technologies to achieve complete decarbonization. By the middle of this century, the total impact of complete decarbonization on the world economy will be less than 0.5% of the global GDP, and the impact can be further reduced by improving energy efficiency and optimizing the use of carbon intensive materials, such as improving material efficiency and recycling, limiting the demand growth of carbon intensive transportation, and improving logistics efficiency and mode conversion. Taking the automobile industry and daily necessities as an example, the impact of using green steel on the selling price of a car is that the overall price increases by about 1250 yuan; The impact of green transportation on the price of an imported pair of jeans is less than 1%; The use of low-carbon plastics will affect the price of a bottle of soda by 1 cent.
In the heavy transport industry, electric trucks and buses (using batteries or hydrogen fuel cells) may become cost competitive by 2030; In the field of shipping and aviation, liquid fuel may still be the first choice for long-distance transportation, but zero carbonization can be achieved by using biological or synthetic fuels.
The report emphasizes that Chinese enterprises will invest in decarbonization in heavy industry and heavy transportation industry, which contains huge business opportunities. In particular, China is rich in wind and solar energy resources. Now is the perfect time for it to reshape its industry and adopt a more competitive low-carbon industrial model, which can also reduce air pollution.
In the field of industry, the report believes that if more recycling economies can use materials more efficiently and significantly strengthen recycling and reuse, the decline in global primary production and emissions will be as high as 40%, while in developed economies, the data will be more considerable. In addition, there are the greatest opportunities in the plastics and metals industries.
According to the report, the industry facing the most severe test of decarbonization in emission reduction is the plastic industry, because the cost of decarbonization is high and the industry structure is scattered, so it is very difficult to deal with the scrapped emissions, cement, process emissions and transportation.
According to the report, the key policy levers to accelerate the pace of decarbonization in industries that are difficult to reduce include: strengthening the carbon intensity requirements for the carbon content of industrial processes, heavy transportation and consumer goods (carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP); Introduce an appropriate carbon pricing mechanism and establish an internationally recognized comprehensive pricing system under the ideal goal. At the same time, it must be recognized that prices can also be determined by industry, application of downstream consumer goods and other pre agreed standards; Encourage economies to shift from linear to cyclical through appropriate regulation of material efficiency and recycling; Invest in green industries and stimulate the demand for "green" products and services through R & D support, deployment support and public procurement; Accelerate public-private cooperation and build necessary energy and transportation infrastructure.
The energy transition Committee brings together leaders from various groups in the energy field, including energy producers, energy users, equipment suppliers, investors, non-profit organizations and academic institutions from developed countries. The committee supports limiting the ideal target of global warming to 1.5 ° C, at least well below 2 ° C.