On October 24, the "double carbon" work opinions issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council proposed to accelerate the optimization of building energy consumption structure and carry out roof photovoltaic action; On October 20, the National Energy Administration issued a notice requiring all power grid enterprises to take effective measures for wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects with grid connection conditions to ensure timely grid connection.
In fact, before the release of these two documents, the national development and Reform Commission has issued three documents in a row, proposing to strengthen the overall allocation of resources and promote more and full generation of clean energy power generation such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaic.
Industry insiders believe that driven by this series of policies, the photovoltaic industry will usher in a period of rapid development, the demand for ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) photovoltaic materials and EVA film in the industrial chain will surge, and relevant listed companies will continue to benefit.
Since this year, the global energy problem has become increasingly prominent. The "double control" of power supply and energy consumption in China has been strictly implemented, and the power shortage situation is still severe. Therefore, wind power and photovoltaic power generation get more policy preference to alleviate the pressure of short-term power supply and implement the "double carbon" goal in the long term.
In fact, 2021 is a year of great demand for photovoltaic in China. According to the data of the national energy administration, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 25.56gw from January to September. Some institutions predict that by 2025, the new domestic installed capacity is expected to reach 110gw, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 20%.
It is noteworthy that the total installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects newly included in the scale of national financial subsidies this year has increased significantly. The total installed capacity from January to September was 11.68gw, a year-on-year increase of 121%, which has exceeded the scale of 10.12gw in 2020, and shows a trend of continuous growth month on month. Globally, according to the prediction of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the scale of the global photovoltaic market will still accelerate in 2021, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 150 ~ 170gw, and 270 ~ 330gw in 2025.
Some securities institutions pointed out that the potential demand of the photovoltaic industry is very high. At present, both unit profit and total profit of the industrial chain are in the expansion stage. Especially in the EVA industrial chain, the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry will drive the surge in the demand for EVA photovoltaic materials. In 2020, the consumption of EVA photovoltaic materials in China will be about 630000 tons, and it is expected that the new demand will be about 1.76 million tons by 2025.
From the supply side, EVA photovoltaic materials have high production barriers, long production expansion cycle and many restrictions on changing production. There are only three manufacturers with mass production capacity of EVA photovoltaic materials in China, namely Sibang, Lianhong Xinke and Ningbo Formosa Plastics, with a cumulative production capacity of less than 400000 tons / year. Among them, Sri Lanka has an EVA production capacity of 300000 t / A and a photovoltaic material production capacity of 200000 t / A, ranking first in China.
However, compared with the demand, the gap between supply and demand of domestic EVA photovoltaic materials is obvious. In the context of supply shortage, the price of domestic EVA photovoltaic materials is also rising. According to market monitoring, the price of EVA photovoltaic materials in China recently rose to 31000 ~ 32000 yuan, up 138% ~ 146% from the highest price of 13000 yuan in 2019.
