On August 16, the national development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of ecological environment and other 21 member departments and units of the special working mechanism for plastic pollution control, held the 2022 national video and telephone conference on plastic pollution control to summarize the progress and achievements of plastic pollution control in the past year, analyze the situation and problems faced by plastic pollution control, and study and deploy the next stage of plastic pollution control.

In January 2020, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecological environment issued the opinions on Further Strengthening the treatment of plastic pollution (hereinafter referred to as the "plastic restriction order"), which defined the specific schedule of "plastic restriction and prohibition". With 2020, 2022 and the end of 2025 as three key time nodes, the production of non degradable plastic bags, non degradable disposable plastic tableware, disposable plastic articles for hotels and express plastic packaging Sales and use shall be prohibited and restricted in an orderly manner, and alternative products shall be actively promoted.

Statistics show that in 2019, the output of primary form plastics in China was about 95.741 million tons. Among them, the amount of plastic used for one-time use exceeds 6 million tons; By the end of 2021, China's degradable plastic output was about 500000 tons, accounting for less than 10% of the disposable plastic consumption.

According to the analysis of securities dealers, with the promotion of the schedule of "plastic restriction order" and the accelerated implementation of policies in various places, the use of degradable materials is expected to enter a rapid growth period.

"Plastic limit" continued to advance

The teleconference calls for the scientific and steady promotion of source reduction and replacement, the vigorous promotion of standardized recycling, utilization and disposal, the strengthening of regular cleaning of floating garbage in rivers and lakes, the efforts to solve problems in key fields such as agricultural film, takeout, e-commerce and express delivery, and the deep participation in global plastic pollution control.

In January 2020, the "strictest plastic restriction order in history" was issued to prohibit and restrict non degradable plastic bags and disposable plastic products from the aspects of production, sales and use.

The "plastic restriction order" requires that it is prohibited to produce and sell ultra-thin plastic shopping bags with a thickness of less than 0.025mm and polyethylene agricultural film with a thickness of less than 0.01mm, to manufacture plastic products with medical wastes as raw materials, and to import waste plastics; By the end of 2020, the production and sales of disposable foamed plastic tableware and disposable plastic cotton swabs will be prohibited, and the sales of daily chemical products containing plastic beads will be prohibited by the end of 2022.

In terms of use, the "plastic restriction order" specifies the implementation time and area of the ban on four disposable products: non degradable plastic bags, disposable plastic tableware, disposable plastic articles for hotels and hotels and express plastic packaging. Among them, for non degradable plastic bags, the "plastic restriction order" requires that by the end of 2022, the use of non degradable plastic bags shall be prohibited in all shopping malls, supermarkets, pharmacies, bookstores and other venues in urban built-up areas at or above the prefecture level and in the county-level built-up areas in coastal areas, as well as catering packaging and delivery services and various exhibition activities, and the use of non degradable plastic bags shall be regulated and restricted in the market; By the end of 2025, the use of non degradable plastic bags will be prohibited in the trade fairs in the above regions; Where conditions permit, the use of non degradable plastic bags should be stopped in places such as urban-rural areas, towns and rural fairs.

As for disposable plastic tableware, express plastic packaging and disposable plastic articles for hotels and hotels, the "plastic restriction order" requires that by 2022, district level and scenic spot catering services will be built above the county level, and the use of non degradable disposable plastic tableware is prohibited; Postal express outlets in Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and other provinces and cities are prohibited from using non degradable plastic packaging bags and disposable plastic woven bags to reduce the use of non degradable plastic tape; Star rated hotels and hotels across the country no longer actively provide disposable plastic products, but can provide relevant services by setting up self-service purchase machines and providing refillable detergent.

By 2025, the consumption intensity of non degradable disposable plastic tableware in the catering field of cities above the prefecture level will decrease by 30%; The use of non degradable plastic packaging bags, plastic tapes, disposable plastic woven bags, etc. is prohibited in Postal Express outlets throughout the country; All hotels, hotels and guesthouses will no longer actively provide disposable plastic products.

At the same time, the policy encourages the promotion of the use of non plastic products such as environmental protection cloth bags and paper bags and degradable shopping bags, as well as the use of bio based products such as straw covered lunch boxes and degradable plastic bags that meet the performance and food safety requirements. In key areas covered with plastic film, the degradable plastic film will be popularized on a large scale in combination with agronomic measures.

According to the "plastic restriction order", by 2025, the management system for the production, circulation, consumption, recycling and disposal of domestic plastic products will be basically established, the multi governance system will be basically formed, the development and application level of alternative products will be further improved, the amount of plastic waste landfill in key cities will be significantly reduced, and the plastic pollution will be effectively controlled.

After the promulgation of the "plastic restriction order", various departments have successively issued relevant bills to support the policy of plastic prohibition and restriction. In July 2021, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued the "14th five year plan" for the development of circular economy, proposing to carry out the special action for the whole chain control of plastic pollution and encourage the public to reduce the use of disposable plastic products; We should actively and steadily promote degradable plastics according to local conditions, and strictly investigate and deal with such behaviors as false labels and false labels of degradable plastics.

In March 2022, the resumed session of the fifth United Nations Environment Conference adopted the resolution on ending plastic pollution (Draft) in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya. At the meeting, heads of state, environment ministers and other representatives from 175 countries approved and signed this historic resolution, aiming to promote the global control of plastic pollution and hope to end plastic pollution by 2024.

Degradable "alternative"

According to the environmental report previously released by the OECD, in 2019, the annual output of plastic products in the world was about 460 million tons, and the amount of plastic waste generated each year reached 353 million tons. Nearly 2 / 3 of the plastic waste was manufactured products with a life of less than 5 years, including plastic packaging (40%), plastic consumer goods (12) and textiles (11%).

According to the OECD, in consideration of the losses incurred in the recycling process, only 9% of the plastic wastes are finally recycled. Among the remaining plastic wastes, 19% of the plastic wastes are finally incinerated, nearly 50% of the plastic wastes enter the sanitary landfill, and the remaining 22% of the plastic wastes are discarded in the unmanaged garbage dump, burned in the open air or exposed to the environment.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, before the implementation of the "plastic restriction order" (2019), the output of primary form plastics in China was about 95.741 million tons, and the output of plastic products was about 81.842 million tons, close to 1 / 5 of the global output. Among them, the output of plastic film (including agricultural film), daily-use plastic and plastic foam products were 15.9452 million tons, 6.4864 million tons and 2.4819 million tons respectively, with a total of 24.9135 million tons, accounting for 30.44%.

According to the statistics of Shenwan Hongyuan, in 2019, the consumption of plastic products classified by one-time use exceeded 6 million tons, mainly including plastic bags, express plastic packaging and agricultural films. Among them, the number of disposable plastic bags used every day is about 3 billion, and the annual consumption of plastic weight exceeds 4 million tons; The takeaway industry in China has produced 900000 tons of garbage, of which plastic products account for nearly 60%, about 540000 tons; The total amount of express business in China reached 635.2 pieces, of which plastic packaging accounted for 33.5%, and the total consumption of packaging was about 870000 tons; In addition, in 2019, the use of plastic straws in China was about 46 billion, and the annual consumption of plastic was about 30000 tons. On the use of agricultural film, the data of the National Bureau of statistics shows that in 2019, China's agricultural film production was about 852000 tons.

Based on the above data, in 2019, the total consumption of major disposable plastic products in China was about 6.292 million tons, accounting for about 8% of the total output of plastic products.

In contrast, in 2019, only 260000 tons of degradable plastic products were used in disposable plastic products in China, accounting for less than 5%. By the end of 2021, the use of degradable plastics in China was about 500000 tons, accounting for less than 10%.

According to the Research Report of Shenwan Hongyuan, in the future, disposable plastic bags will take the lead in becoming one of the main products for replacement. At present, plastic bag consumption mainly occurs in supermarkets, shopping malls, trade fairs, small shops, takeout packaging and household scenes; In the future, the penetration rate of degradable plastic bags in various places will be gradually promoted along the provincial capital - prefecture level cities - county level cities - villages. In 2022 and 2025, the penetration rate of degradable plastic in disposable plastic bags is expected to be 30% and 40%, respectively, and the demand will reach 1.415 million tons and 2.55 million tons.

Haitong Securities estimates that by 2025, the consumption of non degradable plastics in the supermarket, express delivery and take out scenarios will be reduced by about 100000 tons, 1.6 million tons and 300000 tons respectively, and the three scenarios will provide nearly 2 million tons of alternative space for degradable plastics.

Meanwhile, with the implementation of the policy in 2022 and 2025, the penetration of biodegradable materials will continue to increase. Hua'an securities estimates that by 2025, the demand for degradable plastics in China is expected to be 2.38 million tons, and the market scale will reach 47.7 billion yuan; By 2030, the estimated demand will be 4.28 million tons, and the market scale will reach 85.5 billion yuan.

Capacity "competitive preparation"

At present, degradable plastics in the market can be divided into "petroleum based" and "bio based" types. The two types are mainly divided by production raw materials. Petroleum based degradable plastics are produced with fossil energy as raw materials, mainly including PBS (polybutylene succinate), PBAT (copolymer of butylene adipate and butylene terephthalate), PCL (polycaprolactone), etc; The biodegradable plastics mainly use corn, straw and other biological substrates as raw materials, mainly including PLA (polylactic acid) and PHA (polyhydroxyalkanoate).

Among the above biodegradable materials, compared with other biodegradable materials, PLA (polylactic acid) and PBAT have relatively low price and relatively mature production process. They have certain advantages in raw material cost and economic benefits, and are the main substitutes for traditional plastics at present.

Statistics show that in 2021, the average price of PLA products is about 25000-29000 yuan / ton, and the price of PBAT is about 20000-30000 yuan / ton. In contrast, the selling prices of PBS and PCL exceed 30000 yuan / ton and 40000 yuan / ton respectively, and the selling prices of PHA exceed 50000 yuan / ton.

PLA is mainly used in the production of disposable tableware and straw. In the production of film products, the method of blending PLA with PBAT solution is generally adopted, and a certain proportion of solubilizer is added to improve the mechanical properties of PLA. However, the production process and cost control of several biodegradable materials such as PBS, PHA and PCL are still insufficient.

It is reported that at present, PBS is mainly limited by the shortage of production capacity of succinic acid, which is the core raw material. The price of raw materials exceeds 20000 yuan / ton, resulting in high production costs. The production technology of PHA and PCL is not mature, and the production of PHA is limited by the polymer devolatilization and separation link, which makes it difficult to separate and purify the product; PCL production is mainly faced with difficulties such as difficulty in improving the purity of raw materials and easy to explode in the production process. Therefore, the lack of technology limits the capacity release of PHA and PCL.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that PLA and PBAT stand out among many comparable materials and are widely used in the market, and PLA is the material with the most "double carbon" significance, considering the best performance and the most economic benefits of biodegradable materials.

The raw materials of PLA are mainly corn and straw, which can be quickly decomposed into carbon dioxide, water and inorganic salts under composting (Industrial compost) conditions after use, helping plants to generate starch again under photosynthesis, which will be used in the next production of polylactic acid (PLA) to form a carbon cycle.

Statistics show that in 2021, the global production capacity of polylactic acid (PLA) is about 500000 tons / year, of which the domestic production capacity is only 175000 tons / year.

It is noteworthy that in 2021, domestic PLA will usher in an expansion period. On August 16, Haizheng biological was listed on the science and technology innovation board. According to the prospectus, by the end of 2021, Haizheng biological had a capacity of 34500 tons of pure polylactic acid (design capacity of 45000 tons) and a capacity of 19500 tons of composite modified polylactic acid, with a total capacity of 44000 tons. The company plans to raise 1.326 billion yuan through IPO, of which 1.238 billion yuan will be used for the project with an annual output of 150000 tons of polylactic acid. After the project is completed, the company's polylactic acid production capacity will exceed 200000 tons / year.

On July 26, Jindan technology released the plan for issuing convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects. The company plans to raise 700 million yuan, of which 500 million yuan will be used for the project of biodegradable new materials with an annual output of 75000 tons of polylactic acid. Data show that Jindan technology is a leading company in the domestic lactic acid industry. By the end of 2021, the company had a lactic acid production capacity of 178000 tons, accounting for 34% of the total domestic lactic acid production capacity.

At the end of 2021, COFCO science and technology announced that it planned to invest 587 million yuan for the construction of the project with an annual output of 30000 tons of lactide to open up the whole industrial chain of polylactic acid. Shenwan Hongyuan estimates that by 2025, the bulk demand of PLA in China will reach 2.08 million tons.

Accelerated implementation of policies

Since the promulgation of the "plastic restriction order", various regions have taken different degrees of plastic pollution control actions, of which Hainan and Beijing have relatively strong enforcement.

According to public reports, by the end of 2021, all relevant cities and counties in Hainan Province have eliminated the production enterprises or production lines that have closed down or prohibited plastic products; Among the 18 cities and counties with agricultural film recycling tasks, 17 cities and counties have agricultural film recycling rate of more than 80%; The average occupancy rate of biodegradable plastic substitutes in key industrial sites in the province is 72.85%, of which 12 cities and counties have an average occupancy rate of more than 70%, and 4 cities and counties have an average occupancy rate of more than 60%.

According to incomplete statistics, in 2021, the sales volume of plastic shopping bags in offline stores of large supermarkets in Beijing decreased by about 23 million compared with that in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of about 37%. The "slimming tape" of express enterprises in the city has basically achieved full coverage. The proportion of recycled transfer bags has exceeded 98%, and the proportion of e-commerce express no longer has secondary packaging has reached 90%. The main brand express enterprises have put 33.7 million degradable plastic packaging bags into use. Jingdong and other enterprises continue to strengthen the application of recyclable express packaging boxes to replace one-time foam boxes; Most star rated hotels no longer offer "six small pieces"; The standard recovery rate of waste agricultural film in the city has reached more than 90%.

In addition to Hainan and Beijing, the progress of plastic prohibition in other regions is different, but the overall progress is slightly slow. From the sales data, in 2021, the daily use of plastic bags in China will still exceed 3 billion, corresponding to the annual plastic consumption of more than 4 million tons; In the same period, the domestic use of degradable plastic bags was less than 200000 tons, less than 5% of the annual use of plastic bags.

Shen wanhongyuan believes that at present, the plastic restriction policy in most areas is still limited by the problems such as the difficulty in controlling the source of non degradable plastics and the limited promotion in large areas. Among them, economy has become one of the reasons restricting the promotion of degradable products. Take the use of plastic bags as an example, it is positively related to the total consumption of social zero except cars in China, but inversely related to the restriction policy (especially the charging restriction policy, where customers need to pay for plastic bags).